This is it! This is it!
After what seems like weeks of campaigning, we have entered the final phase of the election campaign and at this stage no one is quite sure which way it is going to go. The latest opinion poll shows the SNP 9% ahead. Can they follow through and make this lead count when it comes to polling day? Will we see Alex Salmond unveiled as the new First Minister?
You can be sure on one thing, the unionist press will be pulling all kind of tricks in the last week in order to swing the vote back to the Unionist parties. But is the public sick of hearing of Labour’s prophecies of doom? That is all we have heard throughout the election from Tony and his cronies.
While the other parties, like the SNP, have outlined their vision for the future of Scotland, all Labour has done is wheel out Tony Blair and Gordon Brown and then constantly berate the SNP policies. Why are they not talking about their own policies?
Labour has been constantly one step behind in this campaign. Releasing their list of supporters of the Union a couple of days after the SNP released their list of businessmen and women who support independence. Also making swift changes to their plans (or lack of plans) on the council tax after the SNP amongst others said that they would scrap it.
Could this be the start of the end of Labour’s stranglehold on Scotland? Are we seeing the entrance of a new political order?
One thing is for sure, this week is going to be the busiest week ever at Our Scotland. Have your say on what you think the outcome is going to be in our predictions thread and join us on Thursday night as we discuss the events as they unfold and what implications it has for the election result and indeed Scotland’s short term future.
Friday, 27 April 2007
Monday, 23 April 2007
Can you count on it?
With this year’s election looking like it is going to go down to the wire, every vote will be absolutely crucial in determining not just which MSPs get elected, but also who will be installed as First Minister and depending on how many seats his/her party win, the bargaining power it would hold over potential coalition partners.
With this in mind it would be reasonable to expect that the system for counting these votes would be thoroughly tested and a certain amount of confidence could be placed in it.
In the past, manual hand counting was the tried and tested way of counting votes. Whilst in no way was this 100% accurate, there was a sufficient level of accuracy to provide a fair result. Very close results were automatically recounted in any case.
In June 2006, the Secretary for State and the Scottish Secretary announced that the 2007 Scottish Parliament and council elections would be counted electronically. This is to be the UK’s biggest test yet of the electronic vote counting system. The change was mainly to do with the fact that the council elections will be decided by STV proportional representation and this electronic counting system would be easier to use.
Fair enough. But safeguards have to be in place to ensure the integrity of the vote. For instance, in California, 1% of the vote has to be hand counted as well as machine counted to ensure that the machines are counting properly.
Does the Scottish elections have a similar check in place? No.
Two US experts on the accuracy of electronic counting systems have said that the Scottish system lacks enough independent safeguards.
However, deputy Scottish Secretary, David Cairns said, "People should have the confidence to know that if things do go catastrophically wrong, we will still have the bits of paper and could do a manual recount if needed."
I think Mr Cairns is spectacularly missing the point. In this election things don’t need to go "catastrophically" wrong to change the outcome. It is too close for that.
If that wasn’t enough to test the confidence of the most optimistic person, then along comes more bad news in the form of postal votes.
With the police being alerted to election fraud, the Scotsman reported that, "The Holyrood election has been left wide open to fraud on a potentially massive scale after ministers scrapped checks designed to prevent abuse of postal votes."
And why did ministers scrap checks designed to prevent abuse of postal votes? You guessed it! Because of the new electronic counting system. It was feared that too many innovations might overwhelm the system!
It’ll be interesting to see what happens….
With this in mind it would be reasonable to expect that the system for counting these votes would be thoroughly tested and a certain amount of confidence could be placed in it.
In the past, manual hand counting was the tried and tested way of counting votes. Whilst in no way was this 100% accurate, there was a sufficient level of accuracy to provide a fair result. Very close results were automatically recounted in any case.
In June 2006, the Secretary for State and the Scottish Secretary announced that the 2007 Scottish Parliament and council elections would be counted electronically. This is to be the UK’s biggest test yet of the electronic vote counting system. The change was mainly to do with the fact that the council elections will be decided by STV proportional representation and this electronic counting system would be easier to use.
Fair enough. But safeguards have to be in place to ensure the integrity of the vote. For instance, in California, 1% of the vote has to be hand counted as well as machine counted to ensure that the machines are counting properly.
Does the Scottish elections have a similar check in place? No.
Two US experts on the accuracy of electronic counting systems have said that the Scottish system lacks enough independent safeguards.
However, deputy Scottish Secretary, David Cairns said, "People should have the confidence to know that if things do go catastrophically wrong, we will still have the bits of paper and could do a manual recount if needed."
I think Mr Cairns is spectacularly missing the point. In this election things don’t need to go "catastrophically" wrong to change the outcome. It is too close for that.
If that wasn’t enough to test the confidence of the most optimistic person, then along comes more bad news in the form of postal votes.
With the police being alerted to election fraud, the Scotsman reported that, "The Holyrood election has been left wide open to fraud on a potentially massive scale after ministers scrapped checks designed to prevent abuse of postal votes."
And why did ministers scrap checks designed to prevent abuse of postal votes? You guessed it! Because of the new electronic counting system. It was feared that too many innovations might overwhelm the system!
It’ll be interesting to see what happens….
Sunday, 22 April 2007
Uncharted Territory
If election time wasn’t exciting enough, this election has the potential to be the most hotly contested election in recent memory. For the first time ever, the SNP are leading the opinion polls with less than two weeks until the election.
The Sunday Times published a poll today, 22nd April, showing the SNP a commanding 7% clear of Labour in both the constituency vote and the regional vote. The paper claims that Labour need, "a seismic turnaround in its fortunes to avoid defeat."
Campaigning on the basis of no extra powers for Holyrood, whilst 83% of Scottish people are opposed to the status quo, seems like a spectacular own goal on the part of the Labour Party. This is compounded by parading Gordon Brown and Tony Blair around promoting Labour’s agenda. Who still thinks those two are electoral assets?
Tony Blair said recently that this election shouldn’t be about giving him a good kicking. That he would be gone soon. Well sorry to shatter your over inflated ego Mr Blair, but this election is not about you. It is more important than just being about you. The short term and possibly long term future direction of Scotland will be decided on May the third.
Will the decision be legitimate though, or is there a risk of the result being manufactured? Questions continue to remain unanswered about both the electronic counting system that is to be used on the night and the authenticity of postal votes. With the Herald reporting today that 20,000 voters in the Helensburgh area were issued with polling cards for West Dunbartonshire instead of Argyll and Bute, it hardly inspires confidence.
Some people that usually have their finger on the pulse are the bookies and they have installed the SNP as favourites to come out of the election with the most seats. If that were to happen, what would happen next? Would the Lib Dems drop their resistance to an independence referendum? Would the SNP drop their commitment to a referendum? Or would the SNP go it alone with a minority government?
So many questions that everyone has an opinion on. State yours at Our Scotland.
The Sunday Times published a poll today, 22nd April, showing the SNP a commanding 7% clear of Labour in both the constituency vote and the regional vote. The paper claims that Labour need, "a seismic turnaround in its fortunes to avoid defeat."
Campaigning on the basis of no extra powers for Holyrood, whilst 83% of Scottish people are opposed to the status quo, seems like a spectacular own goal on the part of the Labour Party. This is compounded by parading Gordon Brown and Tony Blair around promoting Labour’s agenda. Who still thinks those two are electoral assets?
Tony Blair said recently that this election shouldn’t be about giving him a good kicking. That he would be gone soon. Well sorry to shatter your over inflated ego Mr Blair, but this election is not about you. It is more important than just being about you. The short term and possibly long term future direction of Scotland will be decided on May the third.
Will the decision be legitimate though, or is there a risk of the result being manufactured? Questions continue to remain unanswered about both the electronic counting system that is to be used on the night and the authenticity of postal votes. With the Herald reporting today that 20,000 voters in the Helensburgh area were issued with polling cards for West Dunbartonshire instead of Argyll and Bute, it hardly inspires confidence.
Some people that usually have their finger on the pulse are the bookies and they have installed the SNP as favourites to come out of the election with the most seats. If that were to happen, what would happen next? Would the Lib Dems drop their resistance to an independence referendum? Would the SNP drop their commitment to a referendum? Or would the SNP go it alone with a minority government?
So many questions that everyone has an opinion on. State yours at Our Scotland.
Friday, 13 April 2007
Shifting Gear
With the election now less than three weeks away, there has been no shortage of talking points at Our Scotland.
This week the election battle moved up a gear as all of the big parties have now released their manifestos and the campaign has begun in earnest. At the forefront of the SNP manifesto is Scottish independence, closely followed by a proposal to abolish the inherently unfair council tax and replace it with a local income tax.
The Lib-Dems are proposing a similar tax scheme to replace the council tax, however they vehemently oppose being coalition partners with anyone who is proposing Scottish independence.
The Labour Party meanwhile have focussed their attention, after 8 years in power, onto education and because the other parties are shouting so loudly about it, they felt it necessary to tweak the Council Tax system adding a few extra bands in.
The Tories, well let’s face it, are the Tories still relevant in Scotland? Not according to think-tanks at Tory HQ, who have floated the idea of a divorce of the Scottish and UK Tory Party. Would this give the Scottish Tories a new lease of life, no longer associated with the events in the 80’s and 90’s?
Another divorce that has been hotly discussed at Our Scotland this week is the potential break-up of the BBC if Scotland were to be granted independence. How would it work and is it really the best broadcaster in the world?
At least Scottish Labour is the best in the world at something. They are the best in the world at clutching fictitious figures from the air and using them to berate their opposition policies. Is the Scottish public listening anymore and if they are do they believe them?
Belief – That is what this election is coming down to. Who do you believe the most? Do you believe that Scotland can smash the chains that have been holding us back for the last 300 years? Do you believe that Scotland can be a confident, healthy and prosperous country? Do you believe that Scotland can once again rise and be at the forefront of the developing world?
Or do you want another 4 years of Lib-Lab coalition?
One thing is for sure, you can have your say on all this and much more both before and after the election at Our Scotland.
This week the election battle moved up a gear as all of the big parties have now released their manifestos and the campaign has begun in earnest. At the forefront of the SNP manifesto is Scottish independence, closely followed by a proposal to abolish the inherently unfair council tax and replace it with a local income tax.
The Lib-Dems are proposing a similar tax scheme to replace the council tax, however they vehemently oppose being coalition partners with anyone who is proposing Scottish independence.
The Labour Party meanwhile have focussed their attention, after 8 years in power, onto education and because the other parties are shouting so loudly about it, they felt it necessary to tweak the Council Tax system adding a few extra bands in.
The Tories, well let’s face it, are the Tories still relevant in Scotland? Not according to think-tanks at Tory HQ, who have floated the idea of a divorce of the Scottish and UK Tory Party. Would this give the Scottish Tories a new lease of life, no longer associated with the events in the 80’s and 90’s?
Another divorce that has been hotly discussed at Our Scotland this week is the potential break-up of the BBC if Scotland were to be granted independence. How would it work and is it really the best broadcaster in the world?
At least Scottish Labour is the best in the world at something. They are the best in the world at clutching fictitious figures from the air and using them to berate their opposition policies. Is the Scottish public listening anymore and if they are do they believe them?
Belief – That is what this election is coming down to. Who do you believe the most? Do you believe that Scotland can smash the chains that have been holding us back for the last 300 years? Do you believe that Scotland can be a confident, healthy and prosperous country? Do you believe that Scotland can once again rise and be at the forefront of the developing world?
Or do you want another 4 years of Lib-Lab coalition?
One thing is for sure, you can have your say on all this and much more both before and after the election at Our Scotland.
Friday, 6 April 2007
Kick-off
If the first week of the election campaign is anything to go by, then the next three and a half weeks will be an absolute rollercoaster.
The week started with the leaders of the main political parties participating in a live televised debate. Annabel Goldie gave a confident performance and even joked about the unmentionable poll tax.
Jack McConnell struggled with the occasion whilst Nicol Stephen looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights of an oncoming artic lorry.
It was left to Alex Salmond to rise to the occasion and articulately command the stage.
It has emerged during the week that one command that might come from Tory HQ is that the Scottish Tory Party may be hived off and called something different. However nothing will be decided prior to the election.
One thing definitely decided according to Annabel Goldie is that the Scottish Tories will not form any part of any coalition that may be proposed after May 3rd. Maybe she is fearing a 1997 style wipeout!
Perpetual coalition partners, the Lib Dems, have also been in the news this week. Despite the planet collapsing around us, the Lib Dems have abandoned their green credentials in a dramatic U-turn on their road pricing policy.
Changing policies willy-nilly sniffs a bit of New Labour to me and the most senior members of New Labour were in Scotland this week. Dumb and Dumber were here to support Jack McConnell kick start his election campaign. With friends like these..........?!
A friend of independence is businessman Tom Farmer and he re-iterated Scotland's ability to go it alone in a Newsnight Scotland interview.
With virtually every media outlet supporting the bland, inertia of the current set-up, it is refreshing to see Newsnight Scotland at least trying to keep neutral. Unlike the Herald, who published a poll despite it being a week and a half late and the polling organisation not even being a member of the British Polling Council. The poll showed Labour in the lead despite ten polls already conducted this year showing the SNP leading. However in a bizarre anomaly, the same poll showed that the majority wanted Alex Salmond as First Minister!
Hold on folks, the ride has just begun!!
Discuss this and much more at Our Scotland
The week started with the leaders of the main political parties participating in a live televised debate. Annabel Goldie gave a confident performance and even joked about the unmentionable poll tax.
Jack McConnell struggled with the occasion whilst Nicol Stephen looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights of an oncoming artic lorry.
It was left to Alex Salmond to rise to the occasion and articulately command the stage.
It has emerged during the week that one command that might come from Tory HQ is that the Scottish Tory Party may be hived off and called something different. However nothing will be decided prior to the election.
One thing definitely decided according to Annabel Goldie is that the Scottish Tories will not form any part of any coalition that may be proposed after May 3rd. Maybe she is fearing a 1997 style wipeout!
Perpetual coalition partners, the Lib Dems, have also been in the news this week. Despite the planet collapsing around us, the Lib Dems have abandoned their green credentials in a dramatic U-turn on their road pricing policy.
Changing policies willy-nilly sniffs a bit of New Labour to me and the most senior members of New Labour were in Scotland this week. Dumb and Dumber were here to support Jack McConnell kick start his election campaign. With friends like these..........?!
A friend of independence is businessman Tom Farmer and he re-iterated Scotland's ability to go it alone in a Newsnight Scotland interview.
With virtually every media outlet supporting the bland, inertia of the current set-up, it is refreshing to see Newsnight Scotland at least trying to keep neutral. Unlike the Herald, who published a poll despite it being a week and a half late and the polling organisation not even being a member of the British Polling Council. The poll showed Labour in the lead despite ten polls already conducted this year showing the SNP leading. However in a bizarre anomaly, the same poll showed that the majority wanted Alex Salmond as First Minister!
Hold on folks, the ride has just begun!!
Discuss this and much more at Our Scotland
Tuesday, 3 April 2007
Labour's Campaign
What do you do if your election campaign is stalling before it has barely begun? That is the question that Jack McConnell must be asking himself as he continues to trail the SNP in poll after poll.
The last thing I would do would be to be associated with two of the most untrustworthy men in Britain.. Yet that has been Jack McConnell’s campaign strategy as he let Tony Blair and Gordon Brown do his talking today.
Voting for the SNP would , "inject uncertainty and instability," claimed Mr Blair. But Mr Blair has a history of making false statements to the world. Do you remember Iraq having weapons of mass destruction?
Gordon Brown claimed that independence would be a, "dangerous risk." Yes we all trust your judgement Mr Brown. Your decision to change pension tax rules 10 years ago has contributed £75 billion to the black hole in pension funds.
If this is the best Mr McConnell can come up with, Alex Salmond will be laughing all the way into Bute House.
Here’s hoping!
The last thing I would do would be to be associated with two of the most untrustworthy men in Britain.. Yet that has been Jack McConnell’s campaign strategy as he let Tony Blair and Gordon Brown do his talking today.
Voting for the SNP would , "inject uncertainty and instability," claimed Mr Blair. But Mr Blair has a history of making false statements to the world. Do you remember Iraq having weapons of mass destruction?
Gordon Brown claimed that independence would be a, "dangerous risk." Yes we all trust your judgement Mr Brown. Your decision to change pension tax rules 10 years ago has contributed £75 billion to the black hole in pension funds.
If this is the best Mr McConnell can come up with, Alex Salmond will be laughing all the way into Bute House.
Here’s hoping!
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