Friday 6 May 2011

History In The Making

Another election is consigned to the history books. And it will be referenced as one of the most remarkable elections of all time.

When the campaign started six long weeks ago, it looked as if Labour were heading towards having the largest number of seats in Holyrood. Fast forward to 16.00 this afternoon and the SNP have an unprecedented majority.

Anyone with a passing interest in Scottish politics will have witnessed how things in the campaign (Subway-gate) started to go against Iain Gray. So a Labour defeat would have come as no surprise.

What definitely came as a surprise was the sheer scale of the defeat and the SNP victory.

From the initial victories in Labour heartlands in South Lanarkshire, to the last gains in Labour heartlands in Fife the results were one way traffic. Or a tsunami, which became the favourite phrase of the night. Perhaps ironically, the seat that gave the SNP overall majority was Kirkcaldy, right in Gordon Brown’s backyard.

The Labour vote actually held up quite well despite the lacklustre and negative campaign they conducted. It was just that the SNP vote sky rocketed.

The reason for this was probably three-fold. Firstly the Lib Dem voters brought retribution to the party for their part in the coalition and walked en bloc to the SNP. Secondly the SNP fought, for the most part, a positive campaign. And finally there is the S factor. Salmond. He was head and shoulders above the other party leaders throughout this election campaign and looked the only one suitable of holding the keys to Bute House.

Firmly on Salmond’s radar now, is a referendum on Scottish independence.

Now that is a referendum worth having!

Saturday 30 April 2011

Election Week

As we enter election week, I don’t think I can take much more excitement! Some people are claiming this has been a boring campaign. Indeed there have been long periods where not very much has happened. But there is nothing like refreshing your Twitter page every two or three minutes, searching blogs and checking out our website to get the latest information from the campaign trail!

Or is it that I am just sad?!

Well, whatever, the latest news from the election is that the Scotland on Sunday and the News Of The World have both come out in favour of Alex Salmond.

And the latest polls show the SNP maintaining their lead in the polls. The latest Mail on Sunday poll has the SNP leading by 10 points on the constituency vote and 5 points on the regional vote.

The Scotland on Sunday poll shows SNP ahead by 8 points on the regional and 2 points ahead on the constituency votes.

Given that at the 2007 election, the SNP shaded the constituency vote by 1 point and the regional vote by 2 points, they seem to have an unassailable lead!

But the polls are contracting a little bit in favour of Labour. And as the most famous saying in politics goes:

A week is a long time in politics.

Thursday 28 April 2011

Final Week

As election day draws ever closer, the excitement continues to build. In stark contrast to the 2010 Westminster election, I think there will be a lot of seats changing hands.

Indeed the Lib Dems are facing electoral annihilation. Their plight isn’t likely to be helped by the fact that Nick Clegg hit the campaign trail with them today!

If the polls are to be believed, the Labour Party are facing a struggle. Iain Gray, our potential next First Minister, may be under pressure in his own constituency of East Lothian.

The SNP are flying high in the polls and on some predictions may even return an unimaginable majority.

The Tories will do as they always do in Scotland – not very well!

The Greens, again according to the polls, are in line for a good result. This could see them potentially in a position to form a coalition with the SNP. I think this would be the most appealing outcome of the election.

Firstly it will start to move legislation forward. For example, instead of the alcohol bill being opposed for oppositions sake, a formal coalition would be able to make progress which would bring about benefits for the whole of Scotland.

Secondly, having a Green partner as part of the Government might bring a new dimension to decision taking, putting more emphasis on protecting the environment. This can only be for the benefit of a future Scotland and our children.

Finally, an SNP/Green coalition would bring about an independence referendum. Salmond and co would have no excuse for delaying it any longer. Let’s have it. Let’s decide Scotland’s future.

So how does one vote for an SNP/Green coalition? SNP constituency vote / Green regional vote? I’ve still to decide on that one!

Friday 22 April 2011

Crest Of A Wave

With just under two weeks until polling day, the SNP have surged into the lead in the opinion polls, being double digits ahead of Labour on both the constituency and the regional vote. The interesting thing about that is the poll was taken before the Scottish Sun came out and backed the SNP.

If the support was to hold, then the SNP would be close to having a majority in the Scottish Parliament. If the Greens do as well as predicted, then an alliance/coalition/agreement (whatever you want to call it), could be on the cards and an independence referendum just around the corner.

But as anybody in politics knows, two weeks is an eternity. Salmond must ride this wave crest all the way onto the beach and back into Bute House.

The alternative is altogether too grim to contemplate!

Wednesday 13 April 2011

Now make the choice

The SNP are the last major party to launch their manifesto, which is due tomorrow. Then we will know where everyone stands. But are they standing in relatively the same place?

Anyway, I will be waiting with interest to see how much weight is given to independence in the SNP manifesto. If it is a token gesture, then I and many others, will be deeply disappointed.

Monday 11 April 2011

Short Of Ideas?

What is the point? Just what is the point?

The BBC commissioned a poll to look at which “policies” hold the biggest sway with the Scottish electorate.

Coming out on top was the reduction of cancer waiting times, which is fair enough. But the majority of the list just fills me with despair.

The second and third top choices were to do nothing at all, because the policies have already been achieved! In fact that is the case for 4 of the top 10.

Is that all we expect of our politicians? Do we not want policies that will improve our country? Just policies that will keep it the same, or change it around the edges?

The Cosla president, Pat Watters, was spot on when he said we are being fed rubbish from the party manifestos.

Where is the vision?

Friday 8 April 2011

Hope or Fear?

Are we really going to trust Labour to run the country after the election? Surely if this week’s manifesto launch was anything to go by, then it just demonstrates what a bad decision that would be.

You could tell it was going to be a bad day before Iain Gray could even take to the stage at the manifesto launch at Clydebank College, as the fire alarm went off forcing everyone out in the rain.

When he did eventually take to the stage, he starts saying how the Tories are destroying the NHS. Did I miss something? Have we entered a time machine and been transported back to 1979?

Newsflash - The Tories don’t look after the NHS in Scotland!

And to bleat on about how awful Maggie Thatcher was, is insulting to the Scottish electorate. Every man and his dog hates the way Scotland was treated by Maggie Thatcher, but that was nearly a quarter of a century ago. Most of us have moved on from that and are facing forward!

I was going to write further about the monumental Labour manifesto gaffe and the totally uninspiring Labour PPB, but I think I might have stumbled on the reason the SNP is more likely to get my vote.

Labour is all about fear. Be afraid of the past, the dirty Tories. Be afraid of change, stick to what you have got and be grateful for it.

SNP is about looking forward. Let’s take hold of our own destiny. Let’s look forward to new challenges. How can we shape a future Scotland that will benefit its people?

I know which Scotland I want to be a part of.

Tuesday 5 April 2011

Lib Dems Launch Manifesto

The Liberal Democrats are the latest party to launch their election manifesto. There is no mention of a student pledge in this manifesto though! Although, there is a committment to, "Keep university education free."

Yeah, so they say!

In fact the detail is struggling to get through the frenzy of questions about John Farquhar Munro. If the retiring MSP's intention was self promotion or derailing the already faltering Lib Dem election push, then his timing couldn't have been better.

Indeed, Alex Salmond the master of opportunity himself, couldn't have played it any better. As Jeff at Better Nation eloquently put it - Salmond bags a Munro.

Monday 4 April 2011

Salmond Best For First Minister

You know it is going to be a long hard campaign when firstly you are consistently polling in single percentage points. Secondly, you lose two candidates before the race has even begun. And finally, one of your most experienced MSPs comes out with his personal endorsement of a leader for an opposition party for First Minister.

Yeah, the Lib Dems retiring MSP for Ross, Skye and Inverness West, John Farquhar Munro, has come out and said that he reckons the Alex Salmond would make the best First Minister.

A number of people must be raging at this move by Munro.

Firstly Tavish Scott, who apparently looks like Steve Davis, would expect the backing of everybody in the Liberal Democrats before an election. Even though he has next to no chance of being First Minister, I think he would reasonably be expecting his MSPs to say that he is the best candidate.

Secondly, Alan MacCrae, the new Lib Dem candidate for the new seat of Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch must be thinking, “Gee, thanks mate!” With this endorsement of Salmond the electorate will be left to interpret whether a vote for the SNP is in order.

Finally, Annabel Goldie must be spitting silver spoons out of her mouth. The Tories launched their manifesto today, but this has been relegated in the news because of Munro. So we don’t get to hear about reinstatement of prescription charges or the introduction of student fees.

It will be interesting to see whether this intervention will have any effect on the outcome of the seats in the Highlands and Islands.

Friday 1 April 2011

The Excitemtent Builds

Ever since the polling card with my name on it came crashing through the door yesterday, it has been restlessly demanding to be taken to the nearest polling booth so it can voice its political opinion!

Calm down, I say.

But the polling card is having none of it. There is political literature trickling through the door every day with parties vying for its vote. There is placards on the lamp posts. There is countless TV interviews. There is leadership debates. It is all coming to a head and will culminate in a crescendo of silence as the ink dries on the X against the voting slip.

What? There is more than one than one voting slip? Surely the Gould Report should have been listened to, with different votes taking place on different days? The slips have different colours? Ah, I am sure that will prevent the chaos of last time!

All that is required now is to sit back and watch the results flood in. What? Some votes will not happen overnight? What a disaster! Surely the sheer drama, excitement, highs, lows, memorable moments etc etc will be dampened down if we don't have an overnight count?

One thing is for sure, they could have the count for Coatbridge and Chryston, the constituency I live in, next December, but you would still know the outcome on Thursday 5th May. As Jeff at Better Nation put it in his excellent analysis of the Central Scotland - Easy Labour Hold.

Will the SNP hold onto power though?

The excitement is building!!

Thursday 31 March 2011

Lib Dem Phenomenon

Cast your mind back 11 months to the general election of 2010. At that point everyone “agreed with Nick” and the Lib Dems were flying high in the polls. Indeed some commentators were forecasting a major breakthrough for them which was going to smash the duopoly of the Tories and Labour.

When the results came in, the reality was significantly different. The Lib Dems actually lost seats, even though they did eventually hold the balance of power.

Fast forward to 2011 and the forthcoming Holyrood elections and I am wondering if we are seeing the same thing happen again, this time in reverse? In poll after poll, the Lib Dems are getting a beating, polling in the mid single figures repeatedly. The Green Party has actually been polling better than them recently!

So come election day, can they turn it around and at least avoid the current electoral apocalypse that is currently being predicted?

I think it will depend on a large part on what extent the public can detach what is happening at Westminster to what is going on at Holyrood. For example will the electorate punish the Lib Dems for their part in the decisions such as spending cuts, or will they save that for the Westminster election?

A further complication will be whether the electorate hold the Lib Dems accountable for matters that don’t directly concern the people of Scotland? For example tuition fees outwith Scotland. The Lib Dems had campaigned vigorously against tuition fees in the run up to the election, yet when they got a sniff of power, they not only abandoned their principles, they actually introduced the bill to increase the charges.

So how is this likely to play out in Scotland?

The Highlands and Islands are probably the safest bet for the Lib Dems and they should retain their 4 seats there. The other seats could go either way. But it is in the North East where the Lib Dems face possibly the biggest threat. Being associated with a tax on oil companies that puts thousands of jobs at risk is not a clever election strategy.

I wonder if the Lib Dems are regretting which coalition they did and didn’t enter into over the last few years?!

Tuesday 29 March 2011

Polls Getting Closer

The latest poll on voting intentions for the imminent Holyrood elections makes for very interesting reading. The SNP, who were previously trailing in the polls, have now closed the gap considerably. Indeed, there is practically nothing to choose between Labour and the SNP in the TNS-BMRB poll.

Perhaps the more interesting thing over the last few months though, has been the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. Their lost vote and who benefits from it may prove to be one of the things that decide this election. Logic indicates that their vote would transfer to the Labour Party.

Running the poll through the Scotland Votes model, shows that the Lib Dems would be on course to lose 8 seats (50% of their 2007 achievement). Looking at their eleven constituency seats, the SNP came second in seven. Labour came second in three and the Tories one. However, if these seats were to exchange hands in that proportion, what would that do to the SNP regional allocation of seats? This would undoubtedly reduce the 26 regional seats the SNP managed to achieve last time.

One thing is for sure, it is shaping up to be a really interesting election with the result completely unpredictable.

Only 37 days to go!

Friday 14 January 2011

Over and Out!

Well the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election has come and gone and it was Labour that limped over the line. Is this an endorsement for Ed Milliband? I hardly think so!! The Lib Dems are failing to get into double figures in the national polls, yet the pushed Labour all the way in this one.

The Tories trailed a distant third, giving weight to the idea that they had an agreement with the Lib Dems not to push all that hard.

So what does this mean for the Scottish elections in May? Absolutely nothing I think!

What may be more significant was the announcement today that Amazon is going to generate nearly a thousand jobs for Scotland. Ian Gray and his Labour buddies were due to campaign on the basis of getting jobs for Scotland. But with today’s announcement, it looks as if Alex Salmond already has that covered.

Thursday 6 January 2011

First Electoral Test

The first electoral test of 2011 is just a week away, when the constituents of Oldham East and Saddleworth will choose a new MP.

This was a three way marginal back at election time with the Labour Party emerging victorious by just 103 votes.

Of course those 103 votes may have been unfairly gained and Phil Woolas has been subsequently stripped of his seat. How is this likely to affect the Labour vote?

If it has a big effect, then the Lib Dems, who came second last time, are hoping they will be the beneficiaries. However, their votes were gained last time while they were riding the crest of the election wave. Both the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg’s poll ratings were continually high. Fast forward eight months and things are oh so different. The Lib Dems are barely making double figures in polling these days and Nick Clegg wouldn’t have been on many people’s Christmas card list!

So all the votes will go to the Tories, right? Well I severely doubt it. The Tories are doing their best to get all the unpleasant measures out of the way early in this term of office, such as the recent rise in VAT to 20% (which is a permanent rise by the way). Plus, the rumours going around are that they have an unofficial agreement with their coalition partners, the Lib Dems, not to campaign too hard.

So it may not be a case of who is going to win this by-election, but more a case of who is not going to lose it.