First Electoral Test

The first electoral test of 2011 is just a week away, when the constituents of Oldham East and Saddleworth will choose a new MP.

This was a three way marginal back at election time with the Labour Party emerging victorious by just 103 votes.

Of course those 103 votes may have been unfairly gained and Phil Woolas has been subsequently stripped of his seat. How is this likely to affect the Labour vote?

If it has a big effect, then the Lib Dems, who came second last time, are hoping they will be the beneficiaries. However, their votes were gained last time while they were riding the crest of the election wave. Both the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg’s poll ratings were continually high. Fast forward eight months and things are oh so different. The Lib Dems are barely making double figures in polling these days and Nick Clegg wouldn’t have been on many people’s Christmas card list!

So all the votes will go to the Tories, right? Well I severely doubt it. The Tories are doing their best to get all the unpleasant measures out of the way early in this term of office, such as the recent rise in VAT to 20% (which is a permanent rise by the way). Plus, the rumours going around are that they have an unofficial agreement with their coalition partners, the Lib Dems, not to campaign too hard.

So it may not be a case of who is going to win this by-election, but more a case of who is not going to lose it.