Polls Getting Closer

The latest poll on voting intentions for the imminent Holyrood elections makes for very interesting reading. The SNP, who were previously trailing in the polls, have now closed the gap considerably. Indeed, there is practically nothing to choose between Labour and the SNP in the TNS-BMRB poll.

Perhaps the more interesting thing over the last few months though, has been the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. Their lost vote and who benefits from it may prove to be one of the things that decide this election. Logic indicates that their vote would transfer to the Labour Party.

Running the poll through the Scotland Votes model, shows that the Lib Dems would be on course to lose 8 seats (50% of their 2007 achievement). Looking at their eleven constituency seats, the SNP came second in seven. Labour came second in three and the Tories one. However, if these seats were to exchange hands in that proportion, what would that do to the SNP regional allocation of seats? This would undoubtedly reduce the 26 regional seats the SNP managed to achieve last time.

One thing is for sure, it is shaping up to be a really interesting election with the result completely unpredictable.

Only 37 days to go!