Final Countdown

As a well-known Europe song goes, it’s “The Final Countdown.”

The government is rapidly running out of time to call an election. If ever there was an argument for moving towards fixed term elections, then this and Gordon Brown’s earlier indecision about calling a snap election, surely makes it.

There are two favoured dates at the moment, March 25th and May 6th. The final date will depend on the one Labour thinks will give them the greatest advantage.

Judging by the polls, it looks like Labour is going to need all the help they can get. The Tories are constantly polling double digit leads. However, due to the First Past the Post voting system, this may not automatically convert into a huge majority in the House of Commons.

So it promises to be one of the more interesting General Elections of the last twenty years. But the election would just be the beginning of the of the interesting times. For imagine the Tories win. What will the interaction between Holyrood and Westminster be like then? How will the public in Scotland react to the inevitable massive public spending cuts? What will be the effect on support for Scottish independence, given the Tories will barely have a handful of MPs in Scotland? Will the Tories introduce a two tier Westminster, whereby MPs of devolved nations aren’t allowed to vote on certain issues?

If that were to be the case, it would leave you wondering why any serious Scottish politician would want to leave Holyrood and become a second class MP. But that is exactly what Cathy Jamieson hopes to do as she is fighting for selection in Kilmarnock & Louden, the seat being vacated by Scottish Secretary Des Browne.

The big question is, will her face fit? With the idiosyncrasies of the Labour selection process, where loyalty counts for more than talent, then you never know.

That is one of the main reasons why I think people are becoming so disenchanted with politicians and politics. There are very few politicians left who are likely to vote on their principles if this means voting against their party. And the ones that do have the guts, will face de-selection by their party at the earliest opportunity.

This and the apparent filling your boots expenses scandal may just have snapped the patience of the electorate. Indeed just yesterday, the public (although not all of voting age) showed just how much they disliked being told what to do by spurning the red hot favourite for Christmas Number One, for a 16 year old classic by Rage Against The Machine.

A few Scottish constituencies that may be worth keeping an eye on are:

Banff & Buchan – Alex Salmond is standing down and although it is an ultra safe SNP seat, how much of it is to do with Salmond and how much the SNP?

Dumfries and Galloway – Could be one of the few Tory gains in Scotland with a swing of just 3% needed from Labour.

Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale – The Tories have a 4% lead over Labour here and need to hold on if they have any aspirations of power.

Dundee East – It is a toss up between SNP and Labour.

Edinburgh South – Can the Lib Dems overturn Labour’s wafer thin majority?

Glasgow East – Can John Mason hold onto his seat won in the recent by-election?

Livingston – What effect will Devine-Gate ( or should that be shelf! ) have?

Ochil & South Perthshire – See Dundee East.

Perth & North Perthshire – The Tories only need a 2% swing from the SNP to take it.

So with a fascinating General Election imminent, the immortal words of a former Scottish Labour Leader spring to mind.

Bring it on!