In a desperate attempt to appeal to the Lib Dems, Gordon Brown has set out plans for a “Democracy Day.”
This will see Britain having a say on which voting system they would want future Westminster elections to use. It would also see the possibility of an elected House of Lords.
But still there is no referendum on Scottish independence.
Why I hear you ask! Because apparently it isn’t the right time, according to Labour, because of the economic downturn.
There are two striking points that come from this.
Firstly, if Labour is to be believed, we are on our way out of the economic downturn.
Secondly, if they are not to be believed and in actual fact we are still in the middle of an economic downturn, how is it possible to hold referenda on a host of other important constitutional things and not Scottish independence?
I would ask Gordon Brown, but judging by today’s performance, he doesn’t take too kindly to members of the public asking him anything!
Wednesday, 7 April 2010
Tuesday, 6 April 2010
And they're off! (again!!)
So the election campaign has officially started. Although we all know that it has been unofficially being going on for the best part of three years. Ever since Brown stalled over the decision to go to the polls way back in 2007.
And what three years it has been! Despite announcing over 100 times (according to BBC Radio 5) that he has conquered over boom and bust, Gordon Brown was at the helm when we delved into the worst recession for almost 100 years.
At least we did enjoy a bit of cross party consensus in that three years. Just a shame it was a consensus on how to manipulate the MP expenses system to the detriment of the taxpayer, many of whom were in the process of being made redundant at the time.
So exactly who are we to trust with our vote in the forthcoming election? Well, we will get a glimpse in the upcoming “Leadership Debates”. Although not all the leaders are taking place and many of the issues they will be discussing are devolved in Scotland to the Scottish Parliament.
We could look at the latest ratings, which have Brown on –28, Cameron on +17 and unbelievably Clegg on +31.
Indeed this election could potentially be the beginning of something really big for the Lib Dems, despite my previous blog! Clegg’s popularity seems to keep growing and growing and that is even before he has taken to the stage in equal billing with Brown and Cameron. Vince Cable, their treasury spokesman, was one of the few people who came out of this recession with increased credibility. And they could be on the verge of holding the key to power in this general election should the Tories or Labour fall short of an overall majority. Although I think they will still do well to secure 16 MPs in Scotland.
Similarly, Alex Salmond is hoping his SNP MPs are the ones holding the key to power. However, getting to his target of 20 SNP MPs would be nothing short of a minor miracle.
The next 4 weeks are certainly going to be interesting and you can discuss it all at Our Scotland.
And what three years it has been! Despite announcing over 100 times (according to BBC Radio 5) that he has conquered over boom and bust, Gordon Brown was at the helm when we delved into the worst recession for almost 100 years.
At least we did enjoy a bit of cross party consensus in that three years. Just a shame it was a consensus on how to manipulate the MP expenses system to the detriment of the taxpayer, many of whom were in the process of being made redundant at the time.
So exactly who are we to trust with our vote in the forthcoming election? Well, we will get a glimpse in the upcoming “Leadership Debates”. Although not all the leaders are taking place and many of the issues they will be discussing are devolved in Scotland to the Scottish Parliament.
We could look at the latest ratings, which have Brown on –28, Cameron on +17 and unbelievably Clegg on +31.
Indeed this election could potentially be the beginning of something really big for the Lib Dems, despite my previous blog! Clegg’s popularity seems to keep growing and growing and that is even before he has taken to the stage in equal billing with Brown and Cameron. Vince Cable, their treasury spokesman, was one of the few people who came out of this recession with increased credibility. And they could be on the verge of holding the key to power in this general election should the Tories or Labour fall short of an overall majority. Although I think they will still do well to secure 16 MPs in Scotland.
Similarly, Alex Salmond is hoping his SNP MPs are the ones holding the key to power. However, getting to his target of 20 SNP MPs would be nothing short of a minor miracle.
The next 4 weeks are certainly going to be interesting and you can discuss it all at Our Scotland.
Friday, 5 March 2010
Lib Dems Dreaming
I think Tavish Scott, leader of the Scottish Democrats, is going to be a wee bit disappointed come election night. Despite opinion polls saying that the Lib Dems might be onto a bit of a hiding, Scott is claiming that they will win a quarter of the Scottish seats at Westminster.
He must be drinking the same tonic as Alex Salmond, who recently set the SNP an unlikely target of 20 MPs.
But looking closer at Tavish’s claim, he says they will retain all of their current seats whilst gaining Edinburgh North and Leith, Edinburgh South, South Aberdeen and North Glasgow.
There are some seats they currently hold that are dead certs. In that category you would include Charles Kennedy in Ross, Skye and Lochaber, Alistair Carmichael in Orkney and Shetland, Menzies Campbell in Fife North East, Malcolm Bruce in Gordon and John Thurso in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross.
Then there are others that they will probably hold like Michael Moore in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Alan Reid in Argyll and Bute and Robert Smith in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine.
But then we come onto some interesting seats. In Edinburgh West, John Barrett holds a massive lead over the Tories of 30%. However, Barrett is stepping down at the election, being replaced by Michael Crockart. I would still expect the Lib Dems to easily hold this.
Then it is on to Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey. I think the name of the constituency may have been shorter if they had simply named everyone living in the constituency! Danny Alexander wrestled this seat from Labour in 2005 with a quite sizeable majority. But will he be able to hold onto it?
Similarly, Jo Swinson came from nowhere to take East Dunbartonshire from the Labour Party in 2005. Will she be able to convince people to give her another term in Westmnister?
Finally we have Dunfermline and West Fife. The Lib Dems were trounced by Labour here in the previous elections. However following the death of Rachael Squire, the Lib Dems overturned a 27% deficit to take the seat with a slender majority in the by-election. This seat will therefore be under severe pressure come election time.
Onto the seats he thinks he might win:
Edinburgh North and Leith – Labour currently hold a small 5% lead over the Lib Dems. However in the previous elections, Labour had a majority of 25%. The question therefore is, did the Lib Dems vote peak in this seat in 2005?
Edinburgh South – There is less than a 1% difference between Labour and the Lib Dems in this one, so this is probably their best chance in Scotland of gaining a seat.
Aberdeen South – Given the Lib Dems are involved in running the council and all the associated aggro that goes with this, do they really expect to trump Labour? The lead may only be 3%, but it might as well be 100%.
Finally in North Glasgow – Labour won 60% of the vote here in 2001. Need I say anymore?
The reality is, people in Scotland are going to look at the situation and see the prospect of a Tory government at Westminster. Poll tax and other horrific memories of the previous Tory administration come flooding back and therefore the Scottish people will vote tactically to ensure as few Tory MPs get elected in Scotland as possible. This may mean some people voting for a Labour candidate to ensure they give the Tories a good run for their money (or Lord Ashcroft’s money!). As a consequence, other parties share of the vote is going to be squeezed and talk of Lib Dems winning 16 seats or the SNP winning 20 is talk that should be reserved for fantasy land.
He must be drinking the same tonic as Alex Salmond, who recently set the SNP an unlikely target of 20 MPs.
But looking closer at Tavish’s claim, he says they will retain all of their current seats whilst gaining Edinburgh North and Leith, Edinburgh South, South Aberdeen and North Glasgow.
There are some seats they currently hold that are dead certs. In that category you would include Charles Kennedy in Ross, Skye and Lochaber, Alistair Carmichael in Orkney and Shetland, Menzies Campbell in Fife North East, Malcolm Bruce in Gordon and John Thurso in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross.
Then there are others that they will probably hold like Michael Moore in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Alan Reid in Argyll and Bute and Robert Smith in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine.
But then we come onto some interesting seats. In Edinburgh West, John Barrett holds a massive lead over the Tories of 30%. However, Barrett is stepping down at the election, being replaced by Michael Crockart. I would still expect the Lib Dems to easily hold this.
Then it is on to Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey. I think the name of the constituency may have been shorter if they had simply named everyone living in the constituency! Danny Alexander wrestled this seat from Labour in 2005 with a quite sizeable majority. But will he be able to hold onto it?
Similarly, Jo Swinson came from nowhere to take East Dunbartonshire from the Labour Party in 2005. Will she be able to convince people to give her another term in Westmnister?
Finally we have Dunfermline and West Fife. The Lib Dems were trounced by Labour here in the previous elections. However following the death of Rachael Squire, the Lib Dems overturned a 27% deficit to take the seat with a slender majority in the by-election. This seat will therefore be under severe pressure come election time.
Onto the seats he thinks he might win:
Edinburgh North and Leith – Labour currently hold a small 5% lead over the Lib Dems. However in the previous elections, Labour had a majority of 25%. The question therefore is, did the Lib Dems vote peak in this seat in 2005?
Edinburgh South – There is less than a 1% difference between Labour and the Lib Dems in this one, so this is probably their best chance in Scotland of gaining a seat.
Aberdeen South – Given the Lib Dems are involved in running the council and all the associated aggro that goes with this, do they really expect to trump Labour? The lead may only be 3%, but it might as well be 100%.
Finally in North Glasgow – Labour won 60% of the vote here in 2001. Need I say anymore?
The reality is, people in Scotland are going to look at the situation and see the prospect of a Tory government at Westminster. Poll tax and other horrific memories of the previous Tory administration come flooding back and therefore the Scottish people will vote tactically to ensure as few Tory MPs get elected in Scotland as possible. This may mean some people voting for a Labour candidate to ensure they give the Tories a good run for their money (or Lord Ashcroft’s money!). As a consequence, other parties share of the vote is going to be squeezed and talk of Lib Dems winning 16 seats or the SNP winning 20 is talk that should be reserved for fantasy land.
Friday, 12 February 2010
Hot Air
I was seeking opinion in the office this week about what people thought of the Nicola Sturgeon debacle. The overwhelming majority of people, regardless of political opinion, thought that she was a competent politician who could be trusted and in no way should she resign
This reinforced my thought that this whole thing has been blown out of all proportion. Of course opposition parties are going to try to gain political capital wherever they can, but come on.
This country is barely limping out of the worst economic crisis it has encountered in the last eighty years and there may be another crisis just around the corner. We face a tough choice between two different approaches to get the economy back on track. We have a government who seems to be delaying taking forward an independence referendum until they have 129 SNP MSPs.
In short, we have serious issues that are worthy of time and debate.
However, we find ourselves again embroiled in an utterly futile spat. Yet again, I find all this cross party fighting just to score cheap points off one another thoroughly demoralising. It is why people turn off from politics.
How is this going to benefit me? How is this going to get me back in work? If I am in work, how is this going to reduce the amount of tax I have to pay? How is this going to cut my energy bills? How is this going to put food on the table, so I can feed my kids?
Nicola Sturgeon may not have showed the greatest judgement when it came to defending a convicted criminal, but when it really mattered to most of us, she showed impeccable judgement. Her handling of the Swine Flu outbreak helped to keep a calm lid on things, when the media and others were doing their best to whip up a frenzy.
So how about this for an idea? Why don’t MSPs concentrate on making Scotland a better place? And here is the big idea! Why don’t they work together to make this happen? After all, that is what we elect them for.
Why don’t they look at introducing measures to increase the life expectancy of Scottish people, which is currently the lowest in Europe? Why don’t they collectively look at reducing Scottish dependency on alcohol? Why don’t they try and deal with the 600,000 people currently on disability benefits? Why don’t they discuss ways to boost the Scottish economy? Why…….?
That would be a much better way to spend their collective time, rather than discussing whether an MSP should write a letter in support of one of their constituents.
This reinforced my thought that this whole thing has been blown out of all proportion. Of course opposition parties are going to try to gain political capital wherever they can, but come on.
This country is barely limping out of the worst economic crisis it has encountered in the last eighty years and there may be another crisis just around the corner. We face a tough choice between two different approaches to get the economy back on track. We have a government who seems to be delaying taking forward an independence referendum until they have 129 SNP MSPs.
In short, we have serious issues that are worthy of time and debate.
However, we find ourselves again embroiled in an utterly futile spat. Yet again, I find all this cross party fighting just to score cheap points off one another thoroughly demoralising. It is why people turn off from politics.
How is this going to benefit me? How is this going to get me back in work? If I am in work, how is this going to reduce the amount of tax I have to pay? How is this going to cut my energy bills? How is this going to put food on the table, so I can feed my kids?
Nicola Sturgeon may not have showed the greatest judgement when it came to defending a convicted criminal, but when it really mattered to most of us, she showed impeccable judgement. Her handling of the Swine Flu outbreak helped to keep a calm lid on things, when the media and others were doing their best to whip up a frenzy.
So how about this for an idea? Why don’t MSPs concentrate on making Scotland a better place? And here is the big idea! Why don’t they work together to make this happen? After all, that is what we elect them for.
Why don’t they look at introducing measures to increase the life expectancy of Scottish people, which is currently the lowest in Europe? Why don’t they collectively look at reducing Scottish dependency on alcohol? Why don’t they try and deal with the 600,000 people currently on disability benefits? Why don’t they discuss ways to boost the Scottish economy? Why…….?
That would be a much better way to spend their collective time, rather than discussing whether an MSP should write a letter in support of one of their constituents.
Friday, 5 February 2010
Edging Closer
The closer we get to the election, the more exciting things are getting!
The situation is changing on a daily basis. One day, the Labour Party come away from the Chilcot enquiry feeling like victors, then the next, three Labour MPs are being prosecuted for alleged dodgy expenses.
Meanwhile the Tories are riding a crest of a wave. Yes, they are the saviours of the economy. They have the tough measures necessary to sort everything out. Wait a minute, the polls don’t like that you say? Retreat!
Over at Lib Dem HQ, they have issued everyone in their party with Vince Cable masks. His is the only Lib Dem face to be seen on TV, which is good news for them as he is the about the only one that is listened to.
The SNP are too busy lunching to have any time for TV.
A couple of developments in Scottish seats, could provide a little added interest. Nigel Griffiths has had enough of the House of Commons and all it has to offer, in favour of a “once in a lifetime job offer.” The wafer thin majority he enjoyed over the Lib Dems in Edinburgh South could well be put to the test.
Of course, Jim Devine had already shelved any ideas he had of defending his Livingston seat. Now the Crown Prosecution Service has put the final nail in by charging Devine and three others with falsely claiming parliamentary expense. However, Labour had a 30% lead in Livingston, so it would be a huge ask for anyone to pull that back.
Finally Cathy Jamieson has secured the Labour nomination for Kilmarnock and Louden. Margaret Curran is fighting Glasgow East again and there is talk of Wendy Alexander possibly standing in West Dunbartonshire. A mass exodus of high profile figures from the Scottish Parliament.
Is that a reflection of Iain Gray’s leadership of the Labour Party in Scotland?
The situation is changing on a daily basis. One day, the Labour Party come away from the Chilcot enquiry feeling like victors, then the next, three Labour MPs are being prosecuted for alleged dodgy expenses.
Meanwhile the Tories are riding a crest of a wave. Yes, they are the saviours of the economy. They have the tough measures necessary to sort everything out. Wait a minute, the polls don’t like that you say? Retreat!
Over at Lib Dem HQ, they have issued everyone in their party with Vince Cable masks. His is the only Lib Dem face to be seen on TV, which is good news for them as he is the about the only one that is listened to.
The SNP are too busy lunching to have any time for TV.
A couple of developments in Scottish seats, could provide a little added interest. Nigel Griffiths has had enough of the House of Commons and all it has to offer, in favour of a “once in a lifetime job offer.” The wafer thin majority he enjoyed over the Lib Dems in Edinburgh South could well be put to the test.
Of course, Jim Devine had already shelved any ideas he had of defending his Livingston seat. Now the Crown Prosecution Service has put the final nail in by charging Devine and three others with falsely claiming parliamentary expense. However, Labour had a 30% lead in Livingston, so it would be a huge ask for anyone to pull that back.
Finally Cathy Jamieson has secured the Labour nomination for Kilmarnock and Louden. Margaret Curran is fighting Glasgow East again and there is talk of Wendy Alexander possibly standing in West Dunbartonshire. A mass exodus of high profile figures from the Scottish Parliament.
Is that a reflection of Iain Gray’s leadership of the Labour Party in Scotland?
Friday, 1 January 2010
Happy New Year
Happy New Year!
As we say goodbye to one decade and enter into another one, we immediately encounter a problem. What will we call it? Because everything these days has to have a name. Suggestions have included “2010s”, “teens” and even “ten-sions”. No doubt someone, somewhere will get paid millions to think of something suitable.
Political tensions will certainly be evident in 2010 though as the election campaign gathers pace. Gordon Brown is promising a decade of “shared prosperity” if you vote Labour. I seem to recall the same person claiming to have ended the boom and bust cycle, so forgive my scepticism!
Meanwhile, David Cameron is claiming that a hung parliament would be a bad thing, yet is advocating consensus politics. Now I would have thought that the best way to ensure consensus politics is to have a hung parliament.
Alex Salmond is talking hot air. More specifically, about Scotland becoming the energy powerhouse of Europe.
The Lib Dems are saying that Leaders should show their convictions. Whatever that means!
Anyway, these are the opening salvos in the run up to the General Election, the date of which will no doubt still be giving Labour a problem. With the sad unexpected death of North West Leicestershire MP David Taylor, Labour will be under pressure to call a by-election. However, they will not want to potentially hand any momentum to the Tory party, who could easily take this seat. So does this make an early election more likely? Or will they want to hold off until their budget changes (bribes!) begin to kick-in in April?
We should begin to get answers to these questions in February.
As we say goodbye to one decade and enter into another one, we immediately encounter a problem. What will we call it? Because everything these days has to have a name. Suggestions have included “2010s”, “teens” and even “ten-sions”. No doubt someone, somewhere will get paid millions to think of something suitable.
Political tensions will certainly be evident in 2010 though as the election campaign gathers pace. Gordon Brown is promising a decade of “shared prosperity” if you vote Labour. I seem to recall the same person claiming to have ended the boom and bust cycle, so forgive my scepticism!
Meanwhile, David Cameron is claiming that a hung parliament would be a bad thing, yet is advocating consensus politics. Now I would have thought that the best way to ensure consensus politics is to have a hung parliament.
Alex Salmond is talking hot air. More specifically, about Scotland becoming the energy powerhouse of Europe.
The Lib Dems are saying that Leaders should show their convictions. Whatever that means!
Anyway, these are the opening salvos in the run up to the General Election, the date of which will no doubt still be giving Labour a problem. With the sad unexpected death of North West Leicestershire MP David Taylor, Labour will be under pressure to call a by-election. However, they will not want to potentially hand any momentum to the Tory party, who could easily take this seat. So does this make an early election more likely? Or will they want to hold off until their budget changes (bribes!) begin to kick-in in April?
We should begin to get answers to these questions in February.
Monday, 21 December 2009
Final Countdown
As a well-known Europe song goes, it’s “The Final Countdown.”
The government is rapidly running out of time to call an election. If ever there was an argument for moving towards fixed term elections, then this and Gordon Brown’s earlier indecision about calling a snap election, surely makes it.
There are two favoured dates at the moment, March 25th and May 6th. The final date will depend on the one Labour thinks will give them the greatest advantage.
Judging by the polls, it looks like Labour is going to need all the help they can get. The Tories are constantly polling double digit leads. However, due to the First Past the Post voting system, this may not automatically convert into a huge majority in the House of Commons.
So it promises to be one of the more interesting General Elections of the last twenty years. But the election would just be the beginning of the of the interesting times. For imagine the Tories win. What will the interaction between Holyrood and Westminster be like then? How will the public in Scotland react to the inevitable massive public spending cuts? What will be the effect on support for Scottish independence, given the Tories will barely have a handful of MPs in Scotland? Will the Tories introduce a two tier Westminster, whereby MPs of devolved nations aren’t allowed to vote on certain issues?
If that were to be the case, it would leave you wondering why any serious Scottish politician would want to leave Holyrood and become a second class MP. But that is exactly what Cathy Jamieson hopes to do as she is fighting for selection in Kilmarnock & Louden, the seat being vacated by Scottish Secretary Des Browne.
The big question is, will her face fit? With the idiosyncrasies of the Labour selection process, where loyalty counts for more than talent, then you never know.
That is one of the main reasons why I think people are becoming so disenchanted with politicians and politics. There are very few politicians left who are likely to vote on their principles if this means voting against their party. And the ones that do have the guts, will face de-selection by their party at the earliest opportunity.
This and the apparent filling your boots expenses scandal may just have snapped the patience of the electorate. Indeed just yesterday, the public (although not all of voting age) showed just how much they disliked being told what to do by spurning the red hot favourite for Christmas Number One, for a 16 year old classic by Rage Against The Machine.
A few Scottish constituencies that may be worth keeping an eye on are:
Banff & Buchan – Alex Salmond is standing down and although it is an ultra safe SNP seat, how much of it is to do with Salmond and how much the SNP?
Dumfries and Galloway – Could be one of the few Tory gains in Scotland with a swing of just 3% needed from Labour.
Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale – The Tories have a 4% lead over Labour here and need to hold on if they have any aspirations of power.
Dundee East – It is a toss up between SNP and Labour.
Edinburgh South – Can the Lib Dems overturn Labour’s wafer thin majority?
Glasgow East – Can John Mason hold onto his seat won in the recent by-election?
Livingston – What effect will Devine-Gate ( or should that be shelf! ) have?
Ochil & South Perthshire – See Dundee East.
Perth & North Perthshire – The Tories only need a 2% swing from the SNP to take it.
So with a fascinating General Election imminent, the immortal words of a former Scottish Labour Leader spring to mind.
Bring it on!
The government is rapidly running out of time to call an election. If ever there was an argument for moving towards fixed term elections, then this and Gordon Brown’s earlier indecision about calling a snap election, surely makes it.
There are two favoured dates at the moment, March 25th and May 6th. The final date will depend on the one Labour thinks will give them the greatest advantage.
Judging by the polls, it looks like Labour is going to need all the help they can get. The Tories are constantly polling double digit leads. However, due to the First Past the Post voting system, this may not automatically convert into a huge majority in the House of Commons.
So it promises to be one of the more interesting General Elections of the last twenty years. But the election would just be the beginning of the of the interesting times. For imagine the Tories win. What will the interaction between Holyrood and Westminster be like then? How will the public in Scotland react to the inevitable massive public spending cuts? What will be the effect on support for Scottish independence, given the Tories will barely have a handful of MPs in Scotland? Will the Tories introduce a two tier Westminster, whereby MPs of devolved nations aren’t allowed to vote on certain issues?
If that were to be the case, it would leave you wondering why any serious Scottish politician would want to leave Holyrood and become a second class MP. But that is exactly what Cathy Jamieson hopes to do as she is fighting for selection in Kilmarnock & Louden, the seat being vacated by Scottish Secretary Des Browne.
The big question is, will her face fit? With the idiosyncrasies of the Labour selection process, where loyalty counts for more than talent, then you never know.
That is one of the main reasons why I think people are becoming so disenchanted with politicians and politics. There are very few politicians left who are likely to vote on their principles if this means voting against their party. And the ones that do have the guts, will face de-selection by their party at the earliest opportunity.
This and the apparent filling your boots expenses scandal may just have snapped the patience of the electorate. Indeed just yesterday, the public (although not all of voting age) showed just how much they disliked being told what to do by spurning the red hot favourite for Christmas Number One, for a 16 year old classic by Rage Against The Machine.
A few Scottish constituencies that may be worth keeping an eye on are:
Banff & Buchan – Alex Salmond is standing down and although it is an ultra safe SNP seat, how much of it is to do with Salmond and how much the SNP?
Dumfries and Galloway – Could be one of the few Tory gains in Scotland with a swing of just 3% needed from Labour.
Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale – The Tories have a 4% lead over Labour here and need to hold on if they have any aspirations of power.
Dundee East – It is a toss up between SNP and Labour.
Edinburgh South – Can the Lib Dems overturn Labour’s wafer thin majority?
Glasgow East – Can John Mason hold onto his seat won in the recent by-election?
Livingston – What effect will Devine-Gate ( or should that be shelf! ) have?
Ochil & South Perthshire – See Dundee East.
Perth & North Perthshire – The Tories only need a 2% swing from the SNP to take it.
So with a fascinating General Election imminent, the immortal words of a former Scottish Labour Leader spring to mind.
Bring it on!
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