Saturday, 19 May 2007

Rollercoaster

Phew!!

What a last couple of weeks it has been in Scottish Politics.

Firstly we probably had the biggest rollercoaster ride in the world. i.e. The Scottish Elections. Lack of postal ballots, breaking down machines, suspended counts, sellotape and a man swinging a golf club. It was certainly memorable.

Not to mention a pretty pathetic turnout, two elections, using three different ways to allocate seats and of the ones that did turn up to vote, a significant number couldn't make head nor tail of what they were expected to do.

Once some results did finally start to come in, there was no way to predict a winner until the very last seat was read out. Just as a result came in that you thought, "right that's it, it is bound to go their way now," along would come another result which would fly in the face of the previous one.

At the end of it all, we had a change of government, which I think the majority of Scotland wanted to see. Although, was it going to be a coalition or minority government? The Lib Dems intransigence made sure that there was going to be no coalition despite the Greens appealing to their better nature.

Salmond has already got down to business and has elected his front bench, slashing the number of departments that the previous administration had left. This is supposed to be a slicker government to work towards making Scotland "Healthier, Wealthier, Safer and Better Educated." Certainly Salmond is going about his business with the confidence expected of a national leader, which I think was slightly lacking form the previous incumbent.

At the UEFA Cup Final which was held in Glasgow on Wednesday, Salmond was rubbing shoulders with UEFA president Michael Platini. Barely 24 hours later, Salmond was staking Scotland's bid to host the European Championships in 2016.

He has also highlighted the fact that Scottish companies have to pay substantially more money to get their electricity onto the national grid than their London counterparts.

Although these two things don't amount to very much in themselves, I think it points to the direction Salmond is taking Scotland. Standing up for its interests and not just lying down and accepting normal practice.

More of the same Alex.

Thursday, 17 May 2007

What's the price?

Cost of Scottish parliament fit for the 21st century - £414,000,000

Cost of Trident nuclear system capable of human annihilation - £26,000,000,000

Getting rid of Jack McConnell and Tony Blair - Priceless

Friday, 4 May 2007

Election 2007 – SNP Victorious

As a famous song once went, "Oh, what a night!"

We had it all. Excitement, drama, controversy, heated exchanges. And that was just in the BBC studio!

There are two big stories emerging from Election Night.

Firstly there is the disaster relating to the issue of votes and how these votes have been counted ( or not counted ).

Secondly, we had an historic result as the SNP emerged as the biggest single party in Holyrood.

First things first though. Let’s look at the issue of the actual vote and all the issues emerging from it.

Postal Votes
It is simply unforgivable that people who have registered to get a postal vote are left wondering where it is when election day arrives. Everyone who is entitled to vote, should have the opportunity to vote and this opportunity has simply been taken away by incompetence somewhere along the line.

Counting System
Last month, I raised concerns about the electronic voting system. At that point I was more concerned about the integrity of the vote and could never imagine the total fiasco that was played out last night in regard to the counting system. Count after count was suspended as the computer software involved failed to function properly. Apparently it was due to the volume of votes!! Well heaven help us if the turnout had been around 80%.

STV/Council Elections and all that
People have got to decide what they want. Do they want council elections turnout to be 20 odd percent? If so let’s have it on a separate day. Do they want proportional representation where every vote counts, or do they want first past the post?

Somewhere along the line people have got to take responsibility for themselves. Despite numerous advertisements in the press and media, despite clear instructions on the ballot paper, despite Labour guys handing out "sample" voting papers, there was still something like 10% of the ballot papers not counted because they were filled in wrong.

What happened to the sophisticated Scottish electorate? Did it let its brother or sister, who are 99 pence short of a pound, vote for them by proxy?

Result
But onto the result and what a result!

For the first time in over 50 years, the Labour Party are no longer the largest party in Scotland. Given the negative campaign the media have bombarded the SNP with and considering how many seats they were behind after the last election, this result is nothing short of sensational.

Alex Salmond should be smiling like the proverbial Cheshire cat, given this result and in his own constituency of Gordon where he came from third place in the previous election to take it. But Salmond is too shrewd for that. He knows there are still a lot of politics to go under the bridge before he is rightly installed as First Minister of Scotland.

The result also saw the bigger parties re-establish themselves and saw the virtual disappearance of the smaller parties. Both the SSP and Solidarity paid the price for their bitter fall out and didn’t gain a seat. The parliament has possibly lost its greatest speaker in Tommy Sheridan. Global warming has taken its toll on the Green vote as this has been cut back to 2 MSPs.

But this election has belonged to one party and one party only. They have constantly been one step ahead of the rest throughout the campaign.

Step forward the SNP.

Friday, 27 April 2007

The Time Has Come

This is it! This is it!

After what seems like weeks of campaigning, we have entered the final phase of the election campaign and at this stage no one is quite sure which way it is going to go. The latest opinion poll shows the SNP 9% ahead. Can they follow through and make this lead count when it comes to polling day? Will we see Alex Salmond unveiled as the new First Minister?

You can be sure on one thing, the unionist press will be pulling all kind of tricks in the last week in order to swing the vote back to the Unionist parties. But is the public sick of hearing of Labour’s prophecies of doom? That is all we have heard throughout the election from Tony and his cronies.

While the other parties, like the SNP, have outlined their vision for the future of Scotland, all Labour has done is wheel out Tony Blair and Gordon Brown and then constantly berate the SNP policies. Why are they not talking about their own policies?

Labour has been constantly one step behind in this campaign. Releasing their list of supporters of the Union a couple of days after the SNP released their list of businessmen and women who support independence. Also making swift changes to their plans (or lack of plans) on the council tax after the SNP amongst others said that they would scrap it.

Could this be the start of the end of Labour’s stranglehold on Scotland? Are we seeing the entrance of a new political order?

One thing is for sure, this week is going to be the busiest week ever at Our Scotland. Have your say on what you think the outcome is going to be in our predictions thread and join us on Thursday night as we discuss the events as they unfold and what implications it has for the election result and indeed Scotland’s short term future.

Monday, 23 April 2007

Can you count on it?

With this year’s election looking like it is going to go down to the wire, every vote will be absolutely crucial in determining not just which MSPs get elected, but also who will be installed as First Minister and depending on how many seats his/her party win, the bargaining power it would hold over potential coalition partners.

With this in mind it would be reasonable to expect that the system for counting these votes would be thoroughly tested and a certain amount of confidence could be placed in it.

In the past, manual hand counting was the tried and tested way of counting votes. Whilst in no way was this 100% accurate, there was a sufficient level of accuracy to provide a fair result. Very close results were automatically recounted in any case.

In June 2006, the Secretary for State and the Scottish Secretary announced that the 2007 Scottish Parliament and council elections would be counted electronically. This is to be the UK’s biggest test yet of the electronic vote counting system. The change was mainly to do with the fact that the council elections will be decided by STV proportional representation and this electronic counting system would be easier to use.

Fair enough. But safeguards have to be in place to ensure the integrity of the vote. For instance, in California, 1% of the vote has to be hand counted as well as machine counted to ensure that the machines are counting properly.

Does the Scottish elections have a similar check in place? No.

Two US experts on the accuracy of electronic counting systems have said that the Scottish system lacks enough independent safeguards.

However, deputy Scottish Secretary, David Cairns said, "People should have the confidence to know that if things do go catastrophically wrong, we will still have the bits of paper and could do a manual recount if needed."

I think Mr Cairns is spectacularly missing the point. In this election things don’t need to go "catastrophically" wrong to change the outcome. It is too close for that.

If that wasn’t enough to test the confidence of the most optimistic person, then along comes more bad news in the form of postal votes.

With the police being alerted to election fraud, the Scotsman reported that, "The Holyrood election has been left wide open to fraud on a potentially massive scale after ministers scrapped checks designed to prevent abuse of postal votes."

And why did ministers scrap checks designed to prevent abuse of postal votes? You guessed it! Because of the new electronic counting system. It was feared that too many innovations might overwhelm the system!

It’ll be interesting to see what happens….

Sunday, 22 April 2007

Uncharted Territory

If election time wasn’t exciting enough, this election has the potential to be the most hotly contested election in recent memory. For the first time ever, the SNP are leading the opinion polls with less than two weeks until the election.

The Sunday Times published a poll today, 22nd April, showing the SNP a commanding 7% clear of Labour in both the constituency vote and the regional vote. The paper claims that Labour need, "a seismic turnaround in its fortunes to avoid defeat."

Campaigning on the basis of no extra powers for Holyrood, whilst 83% of Scottish people are opposed to the status quo, seems like a spectacular own goal on the part of the Labour Party. This is compounded by parading Gordon Brown and Tony Blair around promoting Labour’s agenda. Who still thinks those two are electoral assets?

Tony Blair said recently that this election shouldn’t be about giving him a good kicking. That he would be gone soon. Well sorry to shatter your over inflated ego Mr Blair, but this election is not about you. It is more important than just being about you. The short term and possibly long term future direction of Scotland will be decided on May the third.

Will the decision be legitimate though, or is there a risk of the result being manufactured? Questions continue to remain unanswered about both the electronic counting system that is to be used on the night and the authenticity of postal votes. With the Herald reporting today that 20,000 voters in the Helensburgh area were issued with polling cards for West Dunbartonshire instead of Argyll and Bute, it hardly inspires confidence.

Some people that usually have their finger on the pulse are the bookies and they have installed the SNP as favourites to come out of the election with the most seats. If that were to happen, what would happen next? Would the Lib Dems drop their resistance to an independence referendum? Would the SNP drop their commitment to a referendum? Or would the SNP go it alone with a minority government?

So many questions that everyone has an opinion on. State yours at Our Scotland.

Friday, 13 April 2007

Shifting Gear

With the election now less than three weeks away, there has been no shortage of talking points at Our Scotland.

This week the election battle moved up a gear as all of the big parties have now released their manifestos and the campaign has begun in earnest. At the forefront of the SNP manifesto is Scottish independence, closely followed by a proposal to abolish the inherently unfair council tax and replace it with a local income tax.

The Lib-Dems are proposing a similar tax scheme to replace the council tax, however they vehemently oppose being coalition partners with anyone who is proposing Scottish independence.

The Labour Party meanwhile have focussed their attention, after 8 years in power, onto education and because the other parties are shouting so loudly about it, they felt it necessary to tweak the Council Tax system adding a few extra bands in.

The Tories, well let’s face it, are the Tories still relevant in Scotland? Not according to think-tanks at Tory HQ, who have floated the idea of a divorce of the Scottish and UK Tory Party. Would this give the Scottish Tories a new lease of life, no longer associated with the events in the 80’s and 90’s?

Another divorce that has been hotly discussed at Our Scotland this week is the potential break-up of the BBC if Scotland were to be granted independence. How would it work and is it really the best broadcaster in the world?

At least Scottish Labour is the best in the world at something. They are the best in the world at clutching fictitious figures from the air and using them to berate their opposition policies. Is the Scottish public listening anymore and if they are do they believe them?

Belief – That is what this election is coming down to. Who do you believe the most? Do you believe that Scotland can smash the chains that have been holding us back for the last 300 years? Do you believe that Scotland can be a confident, healthy and prosperous country? Do you believe that Scotland can once again rise and be at the forefront of the developing world?

Or do you want another 4 years of Lib-Lab coalition?

One thing is for sure, you can have your say on all this and much more both before and after the election at Our Scotland.