Cast your mind back 11 months to the general election of 2010. At that point everyone “agreed with Nick” and the Lib Dems were flying high in the polls. Indeed some commentators were forecasting a major breakthrough for them which was going to smash the duopoly of the Tories and Labour.
When the results came in, the reality was significantly different. The Lib Dems actually lost seats, even though they did eventually hold the balance of power.
Fast forward to 2011 and the forthcoming Holyrood elections and I am wondering if we are seeing the same thing happen again, this time in reverse? In poll after poll, the Lib Dems are getting a beating, polling in the mid single figures repeatedly. The Green Party has actually been polling better than them recently!
So come election day, can they turn it around and at least avoid the current electoral apocalypse that is currently being predicted?
I think it will depend on a large part on what extent the public can detach what is happening at Westminster to what is going on at Holyrood. For example will the electorate punish the Lib Dems for their part in the decisions such as spending cuts, or will they save that for the Westminster election?
A further complication will be whether the electorate hold the Lib Dems accountable for matters that don’t directly concern the people of Scotland? For example tuition fees outwith Scotland. The Lib Dems had campaigned vigorously against tuition fees in the run up to the election, yet when they got a sniff of power, they not only abandoned their principles, they actually introduced the bill to increase the charges.
So how is this likely to play out in Scotland?
The Highlands and Islands are probably the safest bet for the Lib Dems and they should retain their 4 seats there. The other seats could go either way. But it is in the North East where the Lib Dems face possibly the biggest threat. Being associated with a tax on oil companies that puts thousands of jobs at risk is not a clever election strategy.
I wonder if the Lib Dems are regretting which coalition they did and didn’t enter into over the last few years?!
Thursday, 31 March 2011
Tuesday, 29 March 2011
Polls Getting Closer
The latest poll on voting intentions for the imminent Holyrood elections makes for very interesting reading. The SNP, who were previously trailing in the polls, have now closed the gap considerably. Indeed, there is practically nothing to choose between Labour and the SNP in the TNS-BMRB poll.
Perhaps the more interesting thing over the last few months though, has been the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. Their lost vote and who benefits from it may prove to be one of the things that decide this election. Logic indicates that their vote would transfer to the Labour Party.
Running the poll through the Scotland Votes model, shows that the Lib Dems would be on course to lose 8 seats (50% of their 2007 achievement). Looking at their eleven constituency seats, the SNP came second in seven. Labour came second in three and the Tories one. However, if these seats were to exchange hands in that proportion, what would that do to the SNP regional allocation of seats? This would undoubtedly reduce the 26 regional seats the SNP managed to achieve last time.
One thing is for sure, it is shaping up to be a really interesting election with the result completely unpredictable.
Only 37 days to go!
Perhaps the more interesting thing over the last few months though, has been the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. Their lost vote and who benefits from it may prove to be one of the things that decide this election. Logic indicates that their vote would transfer to the Labour Party.
Running the poll through the Scotland Votes model, shows that the Lib Dems would be on course to lose 8 seats (50% of their 2007 achievement). Looking at their eleven constituency seats, the SNP came second in seven. Labour came second in three and the Tories one. However, if these seats were to exchange hands in that proportion, what would that do to the SNP regional allocation of seats? This would undoubtedly reduce the 26 regional seats the SNP managed to achieve last time.
One thing is for sure, it is shaping up to be a really interesting election with the result completely unpredictable.
Only 37 days to go!
Friday, 14 January 2011
Over and Out!
Well the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election has come and gone and it was Labour that limped over the line. Is this an endorsement for Ed Milliband? I hardly think so!! The Lib Dems are failing to get into double figures in the national polls, yet the pushed Labour all the way in this one.
The Tories trailed a distant third, giving weight to the idea that they had an agreement with the Lib Dems not to push all that hard.
So what does this mean for the Scottish elections in May? Absolutely nothing I think!
What may be more significant was the announcement today that Amazon is going to generate nearly a thousand jobs for Scotland. Ian Gray and his Labour buddies were due to campaign on the basis of getting jobs for Scotland. But with today’s announcement, it looks as if Alex Salmond already has that covered.
The Tories trailed a distant third, giving weight to the idea that they had an agreement with the Lib Dems not to push all that hard.
So what does this mean for the Scottish elections in May? Absolutely nothing I think!
What may be more significant was the announcement today that Amazon is going to generate nearly a thousand jobs for Scotland. Ian Gray and his Labour buddies were due to campaign on the basis of getting jobs for Scotland. But with today’s announcement, it looks as if Alex Salmond already has that covered.
Thursday, 6 January 2011
First Electoral Test
The first electoral test of 2011 is just a week away, when the constituents of Oldham East and Saddleworth will choose a new MP.
This was a three way marginal back at election time with the Labour Party emerging victorious by just 103 votes.
Of course those 103 votes may have been unfairly gained and Phil Woolas has been subsequently stripped of his seat. How is this likely to affect the Labour vote?
If it has a big effect, then the Lib Dems, who came second last time, are hoping they will be the beneficiaries. However, their votes were gained last time while they were riding the crest of the election wave. Both the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg’s poll ratings were continually high. Fast forward eight months and things are oh so different. The Lib Dems are barely making double figures in polling these days and Nick Clegg wouldn’t have been on many people’s Christmas card list!
So all the votes will go to the Tories, right? Well I severely doubt it. The Tories are doing their best to get all the unpleasant measures out of the way early in this term of office, such as the recent rise in VAT to 20% (which is a permanent rise by the way). Plus, the rumours going around are that they have an unofficial agreement with their coalition partners, the Lib Dems, not to campaign too hard.
So it may not be a case of who is going to win this by-election, but more a case of who is not going to lose it.
This was a three way marginal back at election time with the Labour Party emerging victorious by just 103 votes.
Of course those 103 votes may have been unfairly gained and Phil Woolas has been subsequently stripped of his seat. How is this likely to affect the Labour vote?
If it has a big effect, then the Lib Dems, who came second last time, are hoping they will be the beneficiaries. However, their votes were gained last time while they were riding the crest of the election wave. Both the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg’s poll ratings were continually high. Fast forward eight months and things are oh so different. The Lib Dems are barely making double figures in polling these days and Nick Clegg wouldn’t have been on many people’s Christmas card list!
So all the votes will go to the Tories, right? Well I severely doubt it. The Tories are doing their best to get all the unpleasant measures out of the way early in this term of office, such as the recent rise in VAT to 20% (which is a permanent rise by the way). Plus, the rumours going around are that they have an unofficial agreement with their coalition partners, the Lib Dems, not to campaign too hard.
So it may not be a case of who is going to win this by-election, but more a case of who is not going to lose it.
Friday, 31 December 2010
Happy New Year!!
Happy New Year Everyone!
Well, it is another election year and the build up to the Holyrood elections in May is well and truly on.
Both Alex Salmond and Iain Gray gave an indication of what the election will be fought in their recent addresses.
Salmond is suggesting a vote for the SNP will be a vote towards economic independence for Scotland.
Gray is suggesting a vote for Labour will be a vote towards more jobs for Scotland.
Can I just remind people of previous assertions made by politicians?
Back in 2007, Salmond said an SNP government would bring about a referendum on Scottish independence. Well, where is it?!
Back in 2010, Labour said a vote for them would keep the Tories out of Westminster. Well Scotland voted for Labour in their droves and still ended up with a Tory government in Westminster.
Back in 2010, the Lib Dems said……. Ah, that one would take too long!
So if you want to let off steam about politicians or just to discuss politics in general, join us over at Our Scotland.
Well, it is another election year and the build up to the Holyrood elections in May is well and truly on.
Both Alex Salmond and Iain Gray gave an indication of what the election will be fought in their recent addresses.
Salmond is suggesting a vote for the SNP will be a vote towards economic independence for Scotland.
Gray is suggesting a vote for Labour will be a vote towards more jobs for Scotland.
Can I just remind people of previous assertions made by politicians?
Back in 2007, Salmond said an SNP government would bring about a referendum on Scottish independence. Well, where is it?!
Back in 2010, Labour said a vote for them would keep the Tories out of Westminster. Well Scotland voted for Labour in their droves and still ended up with a Tory government in Westminster.
Back in 2010, the Lib Dems said……. Ah, that one would take too long!
So if you want to let off steam about politicians or just to discuss politics in general, join us over at Our Scotland.
Saturday, 7 August 2010
To Ring Fence Or Not To Ring Fence
Watched John Swinney on Newsnight the other night. Talk about making a pigs ear of it!
Firstly the stance he first took a few weeks ago saying that the NHS funding would be ring-fenced was completely untenable. The NHS accounts for about 30% of the public sector spending, so to protect that would inflict unattainable cuts elsewhere.
So Swinney was doing his best to pull the wool over our eyes by saying, no fewer than seven times, that the NHS would get the benefit of the Barnett consequentials of the increased spending of the NHS in England.
Now, I don't pretend to know the ins and outs, but this doesn't sound like ring fenced spending to me, so why not just come out and say, "Our position has changed?"
The big problem of course is the looming election. No-one is wanting to make any decisions, because no matter which ones they make, it can only have a detrimental effect on their election chances.
That is why I was pleased that Swinney was seeking cross party agreement on this issue. However, I feel that his reasons for doing this is simply to spread the blame rather than agree consensus on a way forward.
But is that not what Scotland needs right now? Everybody working together for the good of Scotland, helping us get through the cuts and hauling us out of recession? That is what politicians are elected for. To take decisions on behalf of their constituents. Not to take decisions that will benefit their own self interest or that of their party.
Some people may see this as a naive viewpoint, but I am getting sick to death of petty party politics and I think the public are as well.
The best way to tackle this is to have cross party agreement on how to deal with any cuts and leave the economy or the aspect covered by cross party agreement out of any election bickering.
But I am willing to bet that it'll never happen.
Firstly the stance he first took a few weeks ago saying that the NHS funding would be ring-fenced was completely untenable. The NHS accounts for about 30% of the public sector spending, so to protect that would inflict unattainable cuts elsewhere.
So Swinney was doing his best to pull the wool over our eyes by saying, no fewer than seven times, that the NHS would get the benefit of the Barnett consequentials of the increased spending of the NHS in England.
Now, I don't pretend to know the ins and outs, but this doesn't sound like ring fenced spending to me, so why not just come out and say, "Our position has changed?"
The big problem of course is the looming election. No-one is wanting to make any decisions, because no matter which ones they make, it can only have a detrimental effect on their election chances.
That is why I was pleased that Swinney was seeking cross party agreement on this issue. However, I feel that his reasons for doing this is simply to spread the blame rather than agree consensus on a way forward.
But is that not what Scotland needs right now? Everybody working together for the good of Scotland, helping us get through the cuts and hauling us out of recession? That is what politicians are elected for. To take decisions on behalf of their constituents. Not to take decisions that will benefit their own self interest or that of their party.
Some people may see this as a naive viewpoint, but I am getting sick to death of petty party politics and I think the public are as well.
The best way to tackle this is to have cross party agreement on how to deal with any cuts and leave the economy or the aspect covered by cross party agreement out of any election bickering.
But I am willing to bet that it'll never happen.
Sunday, 1 August 2010
Lib Dems Slip Further Into Oblivion
The latest poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times has the Liberal Democrats at 12%, which is marginally better than their all time low rating of 11%. Mike over at Political Betting suggests this may have something to do with the BBC programme Five Days That Changed Britain.
I watched most of that programme and I definitely thought Clegg at least came out of it really bad. In fact I was screaming, "absolute s%$!*" at the TV on a number of occasions!
But with the Lib Dems continually sliding down the polls, it will be interesting to see how their vote goes in the Holyrood elections which are only 9 months away. If it keeps going the way it is, it will keep the Lib Dems out of single coalition partner territory.
It will also be interesting to see what effect it has on the result of the AV referendum which might be seen as a Lib Dem referendum. Is this at serious risk of being defeated and what impact will that have on the LibCon coalition?
I watched most of that programme and I definitely thought Clegg at least came out of it really bad. In fact I was screaming, "absolute s%$!*" at the TV on a number of occasions!
But with the Lib Dems continually sliding down the polls, it will be interesting to see how their vote goes in the Holyrood elections which are only 9 months away. If it keeps going the way it is, it will keep the Lib Dems out of single coalition partner territory.
It will also be interesting to see what effect it has on the result of the AV referendum which might be seen as a Lib Dem referendum. Is this at serious risk of being defeated and what impact will that have on the LibCon coalition?
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