The Liberal Democrats are the latest party to launch their election manifesto. There is no mention of a student pledge in this manifesto though! Although, there is a committment to, "Keep university education free."
Yeah, so they say!
In fact the detail is struggling to get through the frenzy of questions about John Farquhar Munro. If the retiring MSP's intention was self promotion or derailing the already faltering Lib Dem election push, then his timing couldn't have been better.
Indeed, Alex Salmond the master of opportunity himself, couldn't have played it any better. As Jeff at Better Nation eloquently put it - Salmond bags a Munro.
Tuesday, 5 April 2011
Monday, 4 April 2011
Salmond Best For First Minister
You know it is going to be a long hard campaign when firstly you are consistently polling in single percentage points. Secondly, you lose two candidates before the race has even begun. And finally, one of your most experienced MSPs comes out with his personal endorsement of a leader for an opposition party for First Minister.
Yeah, the Lib Dems retiring MSP for Ross, Skye and Inverness West, John Farquhar Munro, has come out and said that he reckons the Alex Salmond would make the best First Minister.
A number of people must be raging at this move by Munro.
Firstly Tavish Scott, who apparently looks like Steve Davis, would expect the backing of everybody in the Liberal Democrats before an election. Even though he has next to no chance of being First Minister, I think he would reasonably be expecting his MSPs to say that he is the best candidate.
Secondly, Alan MacCrae, the new Lib Dem candidate for the new seat of Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch must be thinking, “Gee, thanks mate!” With this endorsement of Salmond the electorate will be left to interpret whether a vote for the SNP is in order.
Finally, Annabel Goldie must be spitting silver spoons out of her mouth. The Tories launched their manifesto today, but this has been relegated in the news because of Munro. So we don’t get to hear about reinstatement of prescription charges or the introduction of student fees.
It will be interesting to see whether this intervention will have any effect on the outcome of the seats in the Highlands and Islands.
Yeah, the Lib Dems retiring MSP for Ross, Skye and Inverness West, John Farquhar Munro, has come out and said that he reckons the Alex Salmond would make the best First Minister.
A number of people must be raging at this move by Munro.
Firstly Tavish Scott, who apparently looks like Steve Davis, would expect the backing of everybody in the Liberal Democrats before an election. Even though he has next to no chance of being First Minister, I think he would reasonably be expecting his MSPs to say that he is the best candidate.
Secondly, Alan MacCrae, the new Lib Dem candidate for the new seat of Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch must be thinking, “Gee, thanks mate!” With this endorsement of Salmond the electorate will be left to interpret whether a vote for the SNP is in order.
Finally, Annabel Goldie must be spitting silver spoons out of her mouth. The Tories launched their manifesto today, but this has been relegated in the news because of Munro. So we don’t get to hear about reinstatement of prescription charges or the introduction of student fees.
It will be interesting to see whether this intervention will have any effect on the outcome of the seats in the Highlands and Islands.
Friday, 1 April 2011
The Excitemtent Builds
Ever since the polling card with my name on it came crashing through the door yesterday, it has been restlessly demanding to be taken to the nearest polling booth so it can voice its political opinion!
Calm down, I say.
But the polling card is having none of it. There is political literature trickling through the door every day with parties vying for its vote. There is placards on the lamp posts. There is countless TV interviews. There is leadership debates. It is all coming to a head and will culminate in a crescendo of silence as the ink dries on the X against the voting slip.
What? There is more than one than one voting slip? Surely the Gould Report should have been listened to, with different votes taking place on different days? The slips have different colours? Ah, I am sure that will prevent the chaos of last time!
All that is required now is to sit back and watch the results flood in. What? Some votes will not happen overnight? What a disaster! Surely the sheer drama, excitement, highs, lows, memorable moments etc etc will be dampened down if we don't have an overnight count?
One thing is for sure, they could have the count for Coatbridge and Chryston, the constituency I live in, next December, but you would still know the outcome on Thursday 5th May. As Jeff at Better Nation put it in his excellent analysis of the Central Scotland - Easy Labour Hold.
Will the SNP hold onto power though?
The excitement is building!!
Calm down, I say.
But the polling card is having none of it. There is political literature trickling through the door every day with parties vying for its vote. There is placards on the lamp posts. There is countless TV interviews. There is leadership debates. It is all coming to a head and will culminate in a crescendo of silence as the ink dries on the X against the voting slip.
What? There is more than one than one voting slip? Surely the Gould Report should have been listened to, with different votes taking place on different days? The slips have different colours? Ah, I am sure that will prevent the chaos of last time!
All that is required now is to sit back and watch the results flood in. What? Some votes will not happen overnight? What a disaster! Surely the sheer drama, excitement, highs, lows, memorable moments etc etc will be dampened down if we don't have an overnight count?
One thing is for sure, they could have the count for Coatbridge and Chryston, the constituency I live in, next December, but you would still know the outcome on Thursday 5th May. As Jeff at Better Nation put it in his excellent analysis of the Central Scotland - Easy Labour Hold.
Will the SNP hold onto power though?
The excitement is building!!
Thursday, 31 March 2011
Lib Dem Phenomenon
Cast your mind back 11 months to the general election of 2010. At that point everyone “agreed with Nick” and the Lib Dems were flying high in the polls. Indeed some commentators were forecasting a major breakthrough for them which was going to smash the duopoly of the Tories and Labour.
When the results came in, the reality was significantly different. The Lib Dems actually lost seats, even though they did eventually hold the balance of power.
Fast forward to 2011 and the forthcoming Holyrood elections and I am wondering if we are seeing the same thing happen again, this time in reverse? In poll after poll, the Lib Dems are getting a beating, polling in the mid single figures repeatedly. The Green Party has actually been polling better than them recently!
So come election day, can they turn it around and at least avoid the current electoral apocalypse that is currently being predicted?
I think it will depend on a large part on what extent the public can detach what is happening at Westminster to what is going on at Holyrood. For example will the electorate punish the Lib Dems for their part in the decisions such as spending cuts, or will they save that for the Westminster election?
A further complication will be whether the electorate hold the Lib Dems accountable for matters that don’t directly concern the people of Scotland? For example tuition fees outwith Scotland. The Lib Dems had campaigned vigorously against tuition fees in the run up to the election, yet when they got a sniff of power, they not only abandoned their principles, they actually introduced the bill to increase the charges.
So how is this likely to play out in Scotland?
The Highlands and Islands are probably the safest bet for the Lib Dems and they should retain their 4 seats there. The other seats could go either way. But it is in the North East where the Lib Dems face possibly the biggest threat. Being associated with a tax on oil companies that puts thousands of jobs at risk is not a clever election strategy.
I wonder if the Lib Dems are regretting which coalition they did and didn’t enter into over the last few years?!
When the results came in, the reality was significantly different. The Lib Dems actually lost seats, even though they did eventually hold the balance of power.
Fast forward to 2011 and the forthcoming Holyrood elections and I am wondering if we are seeing the same thing happen again, this time in reverse? In poll after poll, the Lib Dems are getting a beating, polling in the mid single figures repeatedly. The Green Party has actually been polling better than them recently!
So come election day, can they turn it around and at least avoid the current electoral apocalypse that is currently being predicted?
I think it will depend on a large part on what extent the public can detach what is happening at Westminster to what is going on at Holyrood. For example will the electorate punish the Lib Dems for their part in the decisions such as spending cuts, or will they save that for the Westminster election?
A further complication will be whether the electorate hold the Lib Dems accountable for matters that don’t directly concern the people of Scotland? For example tuition fees outwith Scotland. The Lib Dems had campaigned vigorously against tuition fees in the run up to the election, yet when they got a sniff of power, they not only abandoned their principles, they actually introduced the bill to increase the charges.
So how is this likely to play out in Scotland?
The Highlands and Islands are probably the safest bet for the Lib Dems and they should retain their 4 seats there. The other seats could go either way. But it is in the North East where the Lib Dems face possibly the biggest threat. Being associated with a tax on oil companies that puts thousands of jobs at risk is not a clever election strategy.
I wonder if the Lib Dems are regretting which coalition they did and didn’t enter into over the last few years?!
Tuesday, 29 March 2011
Polls Getting Closer
The latest poll on voting intentions for the imminent Holyrood elections makes for very interesting reading. The SNP, who were previously trailing in the polls, have now closed the gap considerably. Indeed, there is practically nothing to choose between Labour and the SNP in the TNS-BMRB poll.
Perhaps the more interesting thing over the last few months though, has been the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. Their lost vote and who benefits from it may prove to be one of the things that decide this election. Logic indicates that their vote would transfer to the Labour Party.
Running the poll through the Scotland Votes model, shows that the Lib Dems would be on course to lose 8 seats (50% of their 2007 achievement). Looking at their eleven constituency seats, the SNP came second in seven. Labour came second in three and the Tories one. However, if these seats were to exchange hands in that proportion, what would that do to the SNP regional allocation of seats? This would undoubtedly reduce the 26 regional seats the SNP managed to achieve last time.
One thing is for sure, it is shaping up to be a really interesting election with the result completely unpredictable.
Only 37 days to go!
Perhaps the more interesting thing over the last few months though, has been the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. Their lost vote and who benefits from it may prove to be one of the things that decide this election. Logic indicates that their vote would transfer to the Labour Party.
Running the poll through the Scotland Votes model, shows that the Lib Dems would be on course to lose 8 seats (50% of their 2007 achievement). Looking at their eleven constituency seats, the SNP came second in seven. Labour came second in three and the Tories one. However, if these seats were to exchange hands in that proportion, what would that do to the SNP regional allocation of seats? This would undoubtedly reduce the 26 regional seats the SNP managed to achieve last time.
One thing is for sure, it is shaping up to be a really interesting election with the result completely unpredictable.
Only 37 days to go!
Friday, 14 January 2011
Over and Out!
Well the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election has come and gone and it was Labour that limped over the line. Is this an endorsement for Ed Milliband? I hardly think so!! The Lib Dems are failing to get into double figures in the national polls, yet the pushed Labour all the way in this one.
The Tories trailed a distant third, giving weight to the idea that they had an agreement with the Lib Dems not to push all that hard.
So what does this mean for the Scottish elections in May? Absolutely nothing I think!
What may be more significant was the announcement today that Amazon is going to generate nearly a thousand jobs for Scotland. Ian Gray and his Labour buddies were due to campaign on the basis of getting jobs for Scotland. But with today’s announcement, it looks as if Alex Salmond already has that covered.
The Tories trailed a distant third, giving weight to the idea that they had an agreement with the Lib Dems not to push all that hard.
So what does this mean for the Scottish elections in May? Absolutely nothing I think!
What may be more significant was the announcement today that Amazon is going to generate nearly a thousand jobs for Scotland. Ian Gray and his Labour buddies were due to campaign on the basis of getting jobs for Scotland. But with today’s announcement, it looks as if Alex Salmond already has that covered.
Thursday, 6 January 2011
First Electoral Test
The first electoral test of 2011 is just a week away, when the constituents of Oldham East and Saddleworth will choose a new MP.
This was a three way marginal back at election time with the Labour Party emerging victorious by just 103 votes.
Of course those 103 votes may have been unfairly gained and Phil Woolas has been subsequently stripped of his seat. How is this likely to affect the Labour vote?
If it has a big effect, then the Lib Dems, who came second last time, are hoping they will be the beneficiaries. However, their votes were gained last time while they were riding the crest of the election wave. Both the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg’s poll ratings were continually high. Fast forward eight months and things are oh so different. The Lib Dems are barely making double figures in polling these days and Nick Clegg wouldn’t have been on many people’s Christmas card list!
So all the votes will go to the Tories, right? Well I severely doubt it. The Tories are doing their best to get all the unpleasant measures out of the way early in this term of office, such as the recent rise in VAT to 20% (which is a permanent rise by the way). Plus, the rumours going around are that they have an unofficial agreement with their coalition partners, the Lib Dems, not to campaign too hard.
So it may not be a case of who is going to win this by-election, but more a case of who is not going to lose it.
This was a three way marginal back at election time with the Labour Party emerging victorious by just 103 votes.
Of course those 103 votes may have been unfairly gained and Phil Woolas has been subsequently stripped of his seat. How is this likely to affect the Labour vote?
If it has a big effect, then the Lib Dems, who came second last time, are hoping they will be the beneficiaries. However, their votes were gained last time while they were riding the crest of the election wave. Both the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg’s poll ratings were continually high. Fast forward eight months and things are oh so different. The Lib Dems are barely making double figures in polling these days and Nick Clegg wouldn’t have been on many people’s Christmas card list!
So all the votes will go to the Tories, right? Well I severely doubt it. The Tories are doing their best to get all the unpleasant measures out of the way early in this term of office, such as the recent rise in VAT to 20% (which is a permanent rise by the way). Plus, the rumours going around are that they have an unofficial agreement with their coalition partners, the Lib Dems, not to campaign too hard.
So it may not be a case of who is going to win this by-election, but more a case of who is not going to lose it.
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